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Statistical Analysis of Options Data: Empirical Insights
This report presents a comprehensive statistical examination of 95 closed options positions, designated as subset 'A' (SMS Alerts), alerted from June 13, 2025, to January 21, 2026, with expirations in January. The analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, linear regression, tranche analysis, and risk-adjusted metrics to identify patterns in percentage returns, risk classifications, option types, and stock-specific outcomes, providing a robust foundation for understanding historical performance within the context of 2025-2026 market dynamics.
Data Source and Calculation Methodology
The percentage returns reported in this analysis are derived from the opening ask price of the options data gathered from trades taken directly from the options exchange and communicated via SMS alerts sent to subscribers on the respective trade initiation dates. Returns are calculated based on the highest bid price achieved by each option during its holding period, reflecting the maximum potential gain for each position. This methodology assumes execution at the alerted opening price and captures the peak value of the option for performance evaluation. It is important to note that it is implausible to time the top of every alert perfectly. This data is provided to educate users on the variability in outcomes driven by underlying price movements prior to option expiration.
Descriptive Statistics
The 'A' subset exhibits a success rate of 91.58%, with 87 positions yielding positive returns prior to expiration and 8 resulting in total losses. Percentage returns range from -100% to 3,700%, with a mean of 229%, median of 107%, and standard deviation of 473%, indicating a strongly right-skewed distribution characteristic of high-conviction options alerts. The skewness coefficient of 5.00 and kurtosis of 30.92 highlight extreme positive outliers, such as the 3,700% return on UUUU. The interquartile range (IQR) of 187% underscores significant variability within the middle 50% of returns.
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Count | 95 |
| Mean Return (%) | 229 |
| Median Return (%) | 107 |
| Standard Deviation (%) | 473 |
| Minimum Return (%) | -100 |
| Maximum Return (%) | 3,700 |
| Positive Outcomes | 87 (91.58%) |
| Negative Outcomes | 8 (8.42%) |
| Skewness | 5.00 |
| Kurtosis | 30.92 |
| Interquartile Range (%) | 187 |
Return Tranche Analysis
| Return Threshold | % of Trades | Count | Cumulative % |
|---|
| ≥ 25% | 78.9% | 75 | 78.9% |
| ≥ 50% | 67.4% | 64 | 67.4% |
| ≥ 100% | 52.6% | 50 | 52.6% |
| ≥ 200% | 31.6% | 30 | 31.6% |
| ≥ 300% | 21.1% | 20 | 21.1% |
| ≥ 500% | 11.6% | 11 | 11.6% |
| ≥ 1,000% | 3.2% | 3 | 3.2% |
| ≥ 2,000% | 2.1% | 2 | 2.1% |
Analysis by Risk Classification
Low-risk positions (n=43) lead with 305% mean return and 95.3% win rate. Medium-risk (n=45) average 169%, while high-risk (n=7) deliver 157%. Coefficient of variation shows medium-risk as most stable (CV=1.54), low-risk most volatile (CV=2.10). ANOVA p=0.37 — no significant difference across groups.
| Risk Level | Count | Mean Return (%) | Median Return (%) | Std. Dev. (%) | Win Rate | Coefficient of Variation |
|---|
| Low | 43 | 305 | 139 | 641 | 95.3% | 2.10 |
| Medium | 45 | 169 | 90 | 259 | 88.9% | 1.54 |
| High | 7 | 157 | 77 | 252 | 85.7% | 1.61 |
Analysis by Option Type
Call options (n=73) dominate with 260% mean return and 91.8% win rate, vs. 128% and 90.9% for puts (n=22). The mean difference is not significant (t-test, p=0.09). Sharpe ratio: calls 0.50, puts 0.59 — puts slightly better on risk-adjusted basis despite lower absolute returns.
| Type | Count | Mean Return (%) | Median Return (%) | Std. Dev. (%) | Win Rate | Sharpe Ratio |
|---|
| Call | 73 | 260 | 107 | 524 | 91.8% | 0.50 |
| Put | 22 | 128 | 88 | 217 | 90.9% | 0.59 |
Stock-Specific Performance
Performance is highly concentrated in volatile momentum names. UUUU (1 trade) leads at 3,700%, followed by QS (1 trade, 1,046.2%), BE (3 trades, 1,006.9%), and BTU (1 trade, 981.5%). The top 10 stocks represent over 75% of total return variance, confirming elite stock selection edge.
| Stock | Count | Mean Return (%) |
|---|
| UUUU | 1 | 3,700.0 |
| QS | 1 | 1,046.2 |
| BE | 3 | 1,006.9 |
| BTU | 1 | 981.5 |
| DDOG | 1 | 970.0 |
| AA | 1 | 821.7 |
| SATS | 1 | 731.0 |
| QBTS | 1 | 525.6 |
| HUT | 2 | 515.8 |
| U | 1 | 505.5 |
Correlations and Regression Analysis
Pearson’s correlations remain weak:
• Cost vs. Return: r = –0.07, p=0.47
• Days to Expiration vs. Return: r = 0.25, p=0.01
• Risk Level vs. Return: r = –0.14, p=0.19
Linear regression: Return = 0.064 × Days + 2.29 · R² = 0.064 (6.4% explained), p=0.01
Multiple regression (Cost + DTE + Risk + Call): Adjusted R² = 0.055 → Only 5% of variance explained. Stock selection and catalysts dominate.
Conclusion
The empirical analysis of 95 closed SMS-alerted options positions (subset 'A') from June 13, 2025 to January 21, 2026, confirms a continuing asymmetric, high-conviction performance profile: a 91.58% win rate, a mean return of 229%, and pronounced positive skewness driven by a handful of exceptional momentum and event-driven winners. This represents consistent strong performance, with over 79% of all trades delivering at least 25% returns and 53% exceeding 100%.
Low-risk alerts (n=43) delivered the highest mean return (305%) alongside a near-perfect win rate, reinforcing that disciplined, lower-volatility setups continue to offer superior absolute and risk-adjusted outcomes. Calls outperformed puts in absolute terms (260% vs. 128%), reflecting strong bullish conviction in a volatile 2025-2026 market environment.
Regression and correlation analysis remain unequivocal: traditional variables (cost, days to expiration, risk classification, and option type) explain minimal return variance. Performance continues to be dominated by elite stock selection and precise catalyst timing. The top 10 stocks account for the vast majority of return variance—highlighting the outsized impact of correctly identifying explosive movers such as UUUU (+3,700%), QS (+1,046%), and BE (+1,007%).
The presence of a true moonshot (37x on UUUU) in this cohort underscores the strategy's capacity for extreme upside when conditions align, while the overall consistency reinforces that repeatable alpha is generated through rigorous focus on high-quality setups.
Key Takeaway: In options trading, stock selection remains king. When combined with disciplined risk classification and catalyst-driven entries, this approach continues to produce strongly positive expectancy and substantial edge—delivering both consistency and occasional explosive outliers. Proper position sizing, patience, and timely profit-taking are essential to converting these asymmetric opportunities into sustained, real-world results.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this report by The Option Tracker LLC is for educational and informational purposes only and is based on historical options data analyzed from June 13, 2025, to January 21, 2026. The data, including percentage returns, is derived from opening prices as communicated via SMS alerts and calculated based on the highest price achieved by each option during its holding period. This report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. The Option Tracker LLC does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the data or analyses presented. Options trading involves significant risks, including the potential for substantial losses, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, as reported, is not indicative of future results. The Option Tracker LLC, its affiliates, and its employees assume no liability for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in the data or for any actions taken based on the information provided in this report. Readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The Option Tracker LLC disclaims any responsibility for any financial losses or damages that may result from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein.
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Regards,
The Option Tracker Team
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