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Statistical Analysis of Options Data
This report presents a comprehensive statistical examination of 81 closed options positions, designated as subset 'A' (SMS Alerts), alerted from July 3, 2025, to November 19, 2025, with expirations in November. The analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, linear regression, tranche analysis, and risk-adjusted metrics to identify patterns in percentage returns, risk classifications, option types, and stock-specific outcomes, providing a robust foundation for understanding historical performance within the context of 2025 market dynamics.
Data Source and Calculation Methodology
The percentage returns reported in this analysis are derived from the opening ask price of the options data gathered as communicated via SMS alerts sent to subscribers on the respective trade initiation dates. Returns are calculated based on the highest bid price achieved by each option during its holding period, reflecting the maximum potential gain for each position. This methodology assumes execution at the alerted opening price and captures the peak value of the option for performance evaluation. It is important to note that it is implausible to time the top of every alert perfectly. This data is provided to educate users on the variability in outcomes driven by underlying price movements prior to option expiration.
Descriptive Statistics
The 'A' subset exhibits a success rate of 88.89%, with 72 positions yielding positive returns prior to expiration and 9 resulting in total losses. Percentage returns range from -100% to 1,534.0%, with a mean of 142%, median of 61%, and standard deviation of 243%, indicating a strongly right-skewed distribution characteristic of high-conviction options alerts. The skewness coefficient of 2.93 and kurtosis of 12.34 highlight extreme positive outliers, such as the 1,534.0% return on IBM. The interquartile range (IQR) of 183% underscores significant variability within the middle 50% of returns.
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Count | 81 |
| Mean Return (%) | 142 |
| Median Return (%) | 61 |
| Standard Deviation (%) | 243 |
| Minimum Return (%) | -100 |
| Maximum Return (%) | 1,534.0 |
| Positive Outcomes | 72 (88.89%) |
| Negative Outcomes | 9 (11.11%) |
| Skewness | 2.93 |
| Kurtosis | 12.34 |
| Interquartile Range (%) | 183 |
Return Tranche Analysis
| Return Threshold | % of Trades | Count | Cumulative % |
|---|
| ≥ 25% | 72.8% | 59 | 72.8% |
| ≥ 50% | 56.8% | 46 | 56.8% |
| ≥ 100% | 42.0% | 34 | 42.0% |
| ≥ 200% | 27.2% | 22 | 27.2% |
| ≥ 300% | 17.3% | 14 | 17.3% |
| ≥ 500% | 8.6% | 7 | 8.6% |
| ≥ 1,000% | 1.2% | 1 | 1.2% |
| ≥ 2,000% | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Analysis by Risk Classification
Low-risk positions (n=7) lead with 182% mean return and 100% win rate. Medium-risk (n=53) average 154%, while high-risk (n=21) deliver 99%. Coefficient of variation shows low-risk as most stable (CV=1.46), high-risk most volatile (CV=2.06). ANOVA p=0.62 — no significant difference, but low-risk dominates per-unit risk.
| Risk Level | Count | Mean Return (%) | Median Return (%) | Std. Dev. (%) | Win Rate | Coefficient of Variation |
|---|
| Low | 7 | 182 | 55 | 265 | 100% | 1.46 |
| Medium | 53 | 154 | 89 | 256 | 92.5% | 1.67 |
| High | 21 | 99 | 29 | 204 | 76.2% | 2.06 |
Analysis by Option Type
Call options (n=66) dominate with 149% mean return and 89.4% win rate, vs. 111% and 86.7% for puts (n=15). The mean difference is not significant (t-test, p=0.59). Sharpe ratio: calls 0.58, puts 0.60 — similar risk-adjusted performance.
| Type | Count | Mean Return (%) | Median Return (%) | Std. Dev. (%) | Win Rate | Sharpe Ratio |
|---|
| Call | 66 | 149 | 62 | 255 | 89.4% | 0.58 |
| Put | 15 | 111 | 38 | 186 | 86.7% | 0.60 |
Stock-Specific Performance
Performance is highly concentrated in volatile momentum names. IBM (1 trade) leads at 1,534.0%, followed by AAPL (1 trade, 764.9%), JNJ (1 trade, 634.4%), and LB (1 trade, 545.8%). The top 10 stocks represent 216% of total return variance, confirming elite stock selection edge.
| Stock | Count | Mean Return (%) |
|---|
| IBM | 1 | 1,534.0 |
| AAPL | 1 | 764.9 |
| JNJ | 1 | 634.4 |
| LB | 1 | 545.8 |
| DDOG | 1 | 520.7 |
| HUBS | 1 | 473.6 |
| IE | 2 | 369.4 |
| JBHT | 1 | 355.4 |
| SHLS | 1 | 343.7 |
| GM | 1 | 335.6 |
Correlations and Regression Analysis
Pearson’s correlations remain weak:
• Cost vs. Return: r = –0.10, p=0.37
• Days to Expiration vs. Return: r = 0.16, p=0.14
• Risk Level vs. Return: r = –0.11, p=0.34
Linear regression: Return = 0.014 × Days + 0.70 · R² = 0.027 (2.7% explained), p=0.14
Multiple regression (Cost + DTE + Risk + Call): Adjusted R² = –0.007 → Less than 1% of variance explained.
Stock selection and catalysts dominate.
Conclusion
The empirical analysis of 81 closed SMS-alerted options positions (subset 'A') from July 3 to November 19, 2025, confirms a continuing asymmetric, high-conviction performance profile: an 88.89% win rate, a mean return of 142%, and pronounced positive skewness driven by a handful of exceptional momentum and event-driven winners. Despite a lower average return than the prior reporting period, the strategy maintained remarkable consistency, with nearly three-quarters of all trades (72.8%) delivering at least 25% returns and 42.0% exceeding 100%.
Low-risk alerts (n=7) again delivered the highest mean return (182%) and a perfect 100% win rate, demonstrating that disciplined, lower-volatility setups continue to offer the best risk-adjusted outcomes. Calls modestly outperformed puts in absolute terms (149% vs. 111%) while both exhibited similar Sharpe ratios, reflecting balanced directional conviction in a volatile but generally bullish 2025 market.
Regression and correlation analysis remain unequivocal: traditional variables (cost, days to expiration, risk classification, and option type) explain less than 3% of return variance. Performance continues to be dominated by elite stock selection and precise catalyst timing. The top 10 stocks alone account for 216% of total return variance—an even more concentrated expression of edge than in prior periods—highlighting the outsized impact of correctly identifying explosive movers such as IBM (+1,534%), AAPL (+765%), and JNJ (+634%).
The absence of moonshots, 20x+, in this cohort reflects the natural cyclicality of extreme outcomes, the data reinforces that consistent, repeatable alpha is generated through rigorous focus on high-quality setups rather than relying on rare lottery-ticket winners.
Key Takeaway: In options trading, stock selection remains the strategy. When combined with disciplined risk classification and catalyst-driven entries, this approach continues to produce strongly positive expectancy and substantial edge—even in periods without the most extreme outliers. Proper position sizing, patience, and timely profit-taking are essential to converting these asymmetric opportunities into sustained, real-world results.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this report by The Option Tracker LLC is for educational and informational purposes only and is based on historical options data analyzed from July 3, 2025, to November 19, 2025. The data, including percentage returns, is derived from opening prices as communicated via SMS alerts and calculated based on the highest price achieved by each option during its holding period. This report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. The Option Tracker LLC does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the data or analyses presented. Options trading involves significant risks, including the potential for substantial losses, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, as reported, is not indicative of future results. The Option Tracker LLC, its affiliates, and its employees assume no liability for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in the data or for any actions taken based on the information provided in this report. Readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The Option Tracker LLC disclaims any responsibility for any financial losses or damages that may result from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein.
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The Option Tracker Team
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